Sunday, December 27, 2009

A BLACK SWAN (RECESSION 2008…DEPRESSION 2009?)

According to,
Aubie Baltin CFP. CTA, CFA, Phd. (retired)


What is a Black Swan? Before the discovery of Australia, empirical evidence told us that all swans were white and that belief lasted for 100s of years until a Black Swan was spotted in the wilds of Australia. A Black Swan is a sudden unforeseen event that suddenly changes everything about our long held beliefs.


The significance of the Black Swan is that up until the Bear Stearns Hedge Fund affair, everyone was convinced that we and the rest of the world were in a Goldilocks economy and the world's stock markets were all going up, up and away for years to come. After all, with 3 billion new consumers and 10% a year growth rate, what could stop it? Any and all potential negatives were quickly swept under the rug. We were in a new paradigm and all the Natural Laws of economics, such as supply and demand, the business cycle, money supply and interest rates and the fact that trees can't grow to the sky no longer applied. The fact that we were in the longest period in our stock market history without a 10% correction only served as proof positive that we were in a new paradigm, with no thought given to maybe it is a warning that we were past due for a severe correction at best.

MARKET CORRECTION OR CRASH?


We have been in a 10% per year Fiat Money and CREDIT explosion since 1987; at that rate the money supply and debt double every 10 years (our total Debt Load has doubled in the last 6 years alone). Even though you can fool all of the people some of the time or even most of the time, the trouble is that no matter how low the Interest Rates are, they too are compounding and adding to the overall debt load until we are eventually CRUSHED by the no longer bearable load. Please keep in mind that inflation has always been a monetary phenomenon. We have been in a Guns and Butter Economy for 4 years now and as massive deficits accumulate in conjunction with all time high commodity prices, they want us to believe that there is no INFLATION. Well, the collapse of the Bear Stern's Hedge Funds was a BLACK SWAN; that unexpected event that let the FEAR Genie out of the bottle, and the Bubble Burst as everyone seemed to come to their senses virtually over night.

THE BIGGEST BUBBLE IN RECORDED HISTORY

For the first time ever, every one of the world's stock markets were breaking out to new all time highs; with the biggest moves being made by the most illiquid and riskiest Bourses. Let me remind you about how the Natural Laws of the Pendulum and the Reversion to the Mean works. #1 Nature tells us that everything eventually reverts to the mean and #2 the higher the pendulum swings to one side, the higher it will go when it eventually reverses. Using what ever measures you choose, the Bubble that we are now in is even larger than the 1929 Bubble and you all know what followed when that bubble burst.. Like then, the Democrats, now in control of Congress, are working on one Bill after another in their attempt to replicate the 1930's legislation; from raising taxes (on the rich) to anti-trade bills all the way to anti- business, pro-union legislation. One new spending program after another is being proposed every time Hillary speaks. Senator Schumer's proposed 27% tariff on all goods from China, should it pass, will not only unleash a trade war, but it will shoot inflation to the moon and completely tank the Dollar. Unfortunately it is not just Democrats who are espousing anti-trade sentiment.

I've been writing for three years now about the possibility of an FDR of the 21st Century coming to power, all the while praying that this would be one projection in which I was completely wrong.

Do you realize the daily dollar amount of stock market trading is now larger than three times our GDP? You can't have 40% of all business locked into just trading fiat paper back and forth indefinitely without running into some very severe trouble. I could go on all night, but there is no point as I have already outlined one problem after another in great detail in my past letters.

FEAR TRUMPS GREED

When it comes to the stock market and the economy, what matters most is the availability of money, which is directly related to the level of investor CONFIDENCE and the FAITH lenders have in being repaid: Not the rates or purported Interest Rate stance of the FED. For almost three years, the yield spread between Junk and Treasuries had dropped from a high of 15% in the 80's to under 3% signaling an almost complete lack of fear. SUDDENLY, the Bear Stern's Hedge Funds opened everyone's eyes to the realization that the "Emperor had no clothes." The FEAR GENIE was now out of the bottle as Risk was attempted to be re-priced virtually overnight and the world woke up to history's biggest liquidity crisis. Cutting, instead of raising rates by 50 basis points, has only served to reinforce the FEAR factor and accomplished the exact opposite of what the FED was trying to do and the world's central banks have had to pump over a $trillion into the banking system in order to avoid a complete financial system melt down. Mark my words "We ain't seen nothing yet." This weekend's meeting of Finance Ministers of IMF members accomplished absolutely nothing for the simple reason that either they don't know what to do OR if they do know, it is not politically palatable; so they continue doing the wrong but politically acceptable thing like cutting interest rates until it is too late. Doing more of what got you into trouble in the first place is moronic.

WHERE TO NOW?


Suffice it to say that once the unexpectedly disappointing 3rd quarter earnings reporting is over and we retest the August lows, it is still possible that we might get one last media assisted trumped up orgy of buying; probably triggered by a 50 basis point rate cut, that will push the DJII to a new high, but it will be accompanied by all sorts of negative divergences and it will be the only Index that has any chance of making a new high. Trading and breadth will be light and you will have a better chance of making money in Vegas then you will trying to play this last hoped for rally.

CATS AND DOGS

A bull market is never over until the cats and dogs run.. Well, the mid and small caps have led the markets for over three years now, but unlike the last three years, they did not make new highs this time around. They will now lead the market on the way DOWN as whatever is left of investor confidence is channeled into the Safe (?) International Big Caps.

As all my faithful readers know, the Markets and especially GOLD have been behaving almost exactly as expected. In my Sept. 22nd letter, although I did not (by definition) see the Black Swan coming, I did warn you about what the Black Swan has exposed and its associated consequences. Only my timing was slightly off as I had assumed that the Market's new high would be made in December or the first week of January after first having tested the August lows. Nevertheless, I strongly recommended that you sell into any rally and continue to hold on to your core Gold positions and to accumulate more Gold and quality Gold shares on all dips.

WHAT NOW?

Look for earnings disappointments and/or the lowering of earnings projections at best. The safest way to play this market is from the short side: Keeping in mind that the market is not yet ready for a one way ride. Long held beliefs die hard. It will behave more like a roller coaster; so unlike Gold, with the market you sell the rallies. But keep your patience, it is still a might early to chase the market down.

After almost two years of steadily falling Real Estate prices, the experts are now only just beginning to admit that the Bubble has burst, but they are still forecasting a bottom is just around the corner. My friends, look at Japan or our last burst real estate Bubble; the final bottom is at least 10 or 15 years away for both real estate and the stock market.

How To Prepare For Group Discussions

If you are participating in a group discussion, it is important to make sure you're prepared before the discussion begins. While small groups may not be good for the distribution of information, group discussions are excellent for situations where members need to learn concepts or solve problems.To obtain a higher level of thinking, it is important for the group to focus on a specific goal. Being prepared before the discussion starts will allow you to effectively communicate your ideas to the group. To make sure you are prepared for group discussions, there are a number of guidelines you will want to follow. 

It is important for all the member of a group discussion to use reasoning. It is also important for you to ask questions that will allow you to determine how much the other members know about a specific topic. This is called analyzing their knowledge. Asking these questions will allow you to learn more about the other members of the group. It is also essential to avoid conflicts. Conflicts will kill the group discussion, and will not allow it to be productive. You should not make a statement which gives your opinion about the accuracy of a comment that has been made by another member. You should not even make statements like " I think that is an excellent question." The reason for this is because you may send a message saying that all other questions are irrelevant. 

If the members of the group are required to gain certain types of information on their own, you will not want to provide them with it. This will hinder them from being able to conduct their own research. If you are the one who is planning or leading the group, it is important to make sure every member contributes something to the discussion. A decision should always be made by the group instead of a single individual. A simple way to do this is to cast a vote. If the majority agrees on a specific plan of action, this is the plan that should be taken. If you notice that somone is not participating in the discussion, ask them what they think about the issue at hand. It is important for everyone to feel like they are a member. 

It is important to make sure everyone is talking about the topic. The students should talk and make statements regarding the topic. Everyone should be able to voice their own opinion. The best way to approach the topic of discussion is to start with a concept that is simple before moving to one that is complex. While you don't want the member to become bored, you also don't want the topic to become so complicated that no one gains anything from it. Whenever people get together in a group, there will be interpersonal issues among some of the members. Each person will have a different personality type, and some will not work well with others. 

If you see a potential problem, deal with it before it become a major issue that disrupts the group discussion. Whenever you notice that the group or members of the group are straying away from the topic, it is important for them to avoid this. While you will want to look at the group as a whole, it is also important to monitor each member as well. If you are the leader of the group, and you notice that some members are having problems with reasoning or expression, you will want to assist them. To prepare for a group discussion, it is extremely important to make sure you are prepared beforehand. You should understand the topic of the discussion, and if necessary, you should research it. Once you have researched the topic, you should develop your own thoughts or opinions about it.

When the members of a group discussion are prepared, this will allow the discussion to blossom. However, when they are not prepared, the goals of the discussion will not be easy to achieve. To successfully participate in group discussion, you must know how to work well with others, and you must understand the topic or materials that are being discussed. When you are prepared for a group discussion, you will be able to benefit from it.

How to prepare for a job interview

With the global financial crises having a cascading impact on the global economy, the job market too has been gloomy. In such an environment, it is even more important for aspirants to do well in campus interviews to grab the jobs they desire.

And being mentally fit and alert is important to be able to do well in interviews. It will also mean that you will be mentally prepared to handle interviews that have very short notice periods.

A few things to remember

1. Ensure that the resume has been checked for typos and is structured in a way that makes it easy to read. Highlight your skills and experience relevant to the job.

2. Interviews are used as a tool of judging whether you fit the job as well as the company.

3. Know yourself, inside out. Only when you understand yourself completely can you make the panel understand you.

4. Take time to understand how you want to project yourself during the interview.

5. Everything you say or do makes an impression whether positive or negative. Be it the way you sit, the way you talk or your choice of clothing. Everything matters!

6. Remember, an Interview is like a sales pitch in many ways. So ensure that you present yourself well.

Preparing for the unexpected

In some interviews you may be asked to solve a case-study. You can be asked to give an impromptu presentation or recite a poem. Or, you may get the silent treatment from the panel or a stress interview may come your way. You can even be asked to leave the room.

Whatever happens, be mentally prepared for any eventuality. These situations give the panel an opportunity to assess how you behave in stressful or unexpected situations. They just want to get to know the real You. They want to find out if you can handle the job, if you are interested in the company and if you are the person they want to have during tough and stressful times.

Stay calm, remain positive and think logically.

Before the interview. . . 

Research the company

Being well informed about the company and industry provides you with a competitive edge. It also conveys a clear message to the interviewer and that is: 

1. You are career oriented and want to build a career within the industry

2. You understand the intricacies of the industry

3. You are wholeheartedly interested in working for the company

Read up as much as possible about the company and the industry. You can also talk to people who work in the company or the industry to get a first hand feel about what drives the company and the industry.

Appearance


First impressions are made within the first few minutes and are very important for a successful interview. Most employers prefer candidates wearing formal attire (Indian or western). Dress soberly and neatly. It is better to be conservative in the choice of clothes. Avoid flashy clothes or strong perfumes. Jewellery should be at a bare minimum.

Have your clothes ironed and keep it ready in advance, so that you do not waste time in selecting a dress on the day of the interview. This also avoids last minute problems like a stained shirt, wrinkled tie, missing buttons or unpolished shoes. 

Looks matter! Pay a visit to the salon, to get an appropriate haircut. Trim your nails. Remember, a professional look is the first step to making the great the first impression.

The interview tool-kit

The day before the interview, collect all your material and keep them in a file. Keep extra copies of your resume. Carry letters of reference, reference list, transcripts, certificates, other supporting documents, passport size photos, a writing pad, pen and a calculator.

Relax

Ensure that you sleep well the day before the interview. Stay calm and relax; only when you are relaxed will you do well.

During the Interview. . 
1. Stay focused; put away any worries

2. Switch off your cell phone before an interview starts

3. Eye contact conveys confidence

4. Introduce yourself clearly with your first and last name

5. Smile at appropriate times

6. Take time to understand the question and then answer it. It is not a question of how fast you answer but how well you answer

7. Be expressive, talk crisply and slowly. Do not mumble, stammer or use a monotone

8. Keep the answers to the point. Avoid rambling

9. Be forthright and direct. Do not be evasive or beat around the bush

10. Never lie in an interview

11. Never blame or badmouth anyone during an interview

12. Never argue, always give polite responses

13. If you do not know the answer be frank, admit it

At the end of the interview

Generally, the panel will indicate the end of the interview by asking: Do you have any questions for us? Use this opportunity to ask intelligent and relevant questions, to summarize your skills & experience related to the job and indicate your interest in the job.

Conclusion 

It is essential to be confident in an interview. If you have practiced your answers and done your homework, most of the questions can be answered without difficulty. Ensure that you take the time to understand what they are looking for by asking the question. Remember to study the relevant topics before the interview. If you have an interview for an equity research position, know what has been driving the markets, who are the major players, etc. If you have an interview for a marketing position in a FMCG company know what has been the recent trend, what new products have been launched recently, etc.

Keep in mind why you want to go into the industry (Telecom, Banking, Auto, etc.), why you are interested in the job and the company. Make sure you have a good grasp of the basic concepts and convince your interviewer that you have the capability and interest to learn the more complex aspects of the job.

Finally, ensure that you dress and act professionally. Show up on time and make eye contact throughout the interview.

All the Best

Cloud computing services. . .

Cloud Computing Infrastructure. . .

What Makes Up a Cloud

The principles of cloud computing include:

Virtualization and automation
Interchangeable (fungible) resources such as servers, storage and network
Management of these resources as a single fabric
Elastic capacity (scale up or down) to respond to business demands
Applications (and the tools to develop them) that can truly scale out

Focused on the service delivered to the business

Microsoft Cloud Continuum

Microsoft will provide products, technologies and offerings around two types of clouds, each based on the concepts of being highly virtualized, managed in a consistent manner, dynamic and elastic scalability, and focused on the delivery of services to the user:

Private Cloud: An internal service-oriented environment optimized for performance and cost that is deployed inside a customer’s datacenter. Powered by packaged server products including Windows Server and System Center family of products, private cloud provides compatibility with existing applications.

Public Cloud: Provided by service providers, public cloud offers customers the ability to deploy and consume services. In this category, Azure™ is a highly scalable services platform providing pay–as-you-go flexibility delivered from Microsoft’s datacenters.

Microsoft’s Cloud Computing Offers You

A flexible and familiar infrastructure with a consistent Windows-based platform across clouds, reducing your development and deployment.
Integrated resource fabrics that enable the ability to federate services across clouds, ensuring you have the capacity and resources you need to deliver your business requirements.
The agility to develop applications and services once, and then deploy them in, and across any cloud environment, allowing you to rapidly respond to new requirements and business change.
By providing tools that enable customers to manage their fabric and deliver services, Microsoft is providing customers the foundation for cloud computing.

Friday, December 25, 2009

Link For TyBsc-IT SEM 6

hi frnds ths is the link for all the past year papers n notes . . .
hope u will find it helpfull . . .


http://allexampaper.blogspot.com/2008/09/bsc-it-sem-5-6.html